WeatherParis
Paris Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Paris on September 6? $76.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LFPBPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · PASSED18:07 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
SE 4.1 m/s
WIND
27% RH
DEW POINT 7°
- · 217 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:23
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 29°CPEAK PASSED · 28°C HOLDS
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
-
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 28.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 89DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 17°MEAN 22° · TODAY 28.0°P90 30°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 18M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LFPB resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
28.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 18:00
12.0°
MIN · 07:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 25.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +3.0°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:07 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
28°C▲ DAY MAX
93¢97%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 93¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $676 · THIN
FAIR +4
29°C
8¢2%
MKT
MDL
56¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
WATCH -6
30°C
0¢1%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +1
31°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LFPB
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ParisScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-07
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.14
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
23°C @ 51% → 25.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 25°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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