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WeatherPanama City
PA

Panama City

3 live events
Highest temperature in Panama City on October 22? $15.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MPMGPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 7-16 · 5H 40M LEFT10:20 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 10:00
NW 2.6 m/s
WIND
79% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SCT · 271 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 17:58
SHOWERS 76% BY 10:00
PRECIP 76% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 81D
P10 29°MEAN 30°P90 32°
DATA STALE · OBS 3H 31M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
MPMG resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °C
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
2628303228° · 1¢29° · 1¢30° · 8¢31° · 46¢32° · 36¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 31.1°NOW 10:20000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 31.1°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 10:20 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
30°C
8¢49%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE +42
32°C
36¢2%
MKT
MDL
53¢ → 35¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $33 · THIN
⚡EDGE -33
≥33°C
8¢0%
MKT
MDL
10¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
WATCH -8
29°C
1¢4%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +3
31°C
46¢43%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 46¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $38 · THIN
FAIR -2
28°C
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +2
27°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
≤23°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: MPMG
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
31°C · 43%
p10-90 29.9-32.1°C
MKT 44¢ · $3.9K
SAT 24
30°C · 39%
p10-90 28.1-30.6°C
MKT 36¢ · $21
Model track record · Panama CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-09
2%
LEADER HIT RATE · 43D
1 of 43 days
1.23
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
29°C @ 53% → 31.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 31°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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