WeatherPanama City
Panama City Temperature Markets on Polymarket
3 live eventsHighest temperature in Panama City on October 14? $13.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MPMGPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 7-16 · 6H 14M LEFT09:46 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 09:00
E 2.1 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 27°
FEW · 477 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:02
SHOWERS 47% BY 14:00
PRECIP 47% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 29°CON PACE · 29°C LIVE
+1.7°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.7°
TO 28.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 81D
P10 29°MEAN 30° · TODAY 27.8°P90 32°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 18M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
MPMG resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °C
27.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:00
22.8°
MIN · 06:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 09:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 09:46 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
28°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
29°C
0¢39%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
⚡EDGE +39
30°C
15¢61%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 15¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $49 · THIN
⚡EDGE +46
31°C
51¢0%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 50¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $442 · THIN
⚡EDGE -50
≥32°C
36¢0%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 36¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $219 · THIN
⚡EDGE -36
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: MPMG
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Panama CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-05
3%
LEADER HIT RATE · 39D
1 of 39 days
1.21
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
29°C @ 37% → 30.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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