WeatherPanama City
Panama City Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Panama City on July 23? — $25.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MPMGPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · IN 1H11:31 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
ESE 2.6 m/s
WIND
84% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SCT · 278 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:41
PRECIP NOW · -TSRA
PRECIP 100% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 30°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 29°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 29.5° BOUND
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 4M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
MPMG resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °C
29.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:20
25.0°
MIN · 06:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 11:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 11:31 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°C▲ DAY MAX
58¢4%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 58¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $128 · THIN
⚡EDGE -54market rich
30°C
36¢6%
MKT
MDL
11¢ → 36¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $20 · THIN
⚡EDGE -30
31°C
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -4
32°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR -1
≥33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — MPMG
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · Panama CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.24
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
29°C @ 67% → 30.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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