WeatherNYC
NYC Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in NYC on September 6? $71.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KLGAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · PASSED16:35 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 16:00
VRB 2.1 m/s
WIND
52% RH
DEW POINT 13°
FEW · 294 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:20
DRY
PRECIP 3% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 76°FPEAK PASSED · 75°F HOLDS
+1.8°/h
RATE
-
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 75.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 67°MEAN 76° · TODAY 75.2°P90 84°
LAST OBS 46 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KLGA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °F
75°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 15:51
66°
MIN · 06:51
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 79°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.6°AT 16:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 16:35 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤73°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤73°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
74-75°F▲ DAY MAX
85¢75%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 85¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $403 · THIN
WATCH -9
76-77°F
14¢23%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 14¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
WATCH +8
78-79°F
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR +2
80-81°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
82-83°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KLGA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · NYCScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-07
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.79
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
78-79°F @ 84% → 79°F✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 78-79°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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