WeatherNYC
NYC Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in NYC on October 21? $43.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KLGAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-19 · 3H 43M LEFT · NIGHT MAX 11%15:17 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 15:00
N 6.2 m/s
WIND · GUST 9.8
41% RH
DEW POINT 4°
FEW · 474 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:06
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 62°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 61°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 61.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 59°MEAN 67° · TODAY 61.0°P90 80°
DATA STALE · OBS 4H 32M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KLGA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °F
61°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:51
50°
MIN · 07:51
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 69°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.0°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤59°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤59°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
60-61°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢60%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE +60model over market
62-63°F
52¢39%
MKT
MDL
45¢ → 52¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $36 · THIN
WATCH -13
64-65°F
45¢1%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 45¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $55 · THIN
⚡EDGE -44
66-67°F
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
FAIR -3
68-69°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KLGA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · NYCScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
33%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
10 of 30 days
0.87
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
66-67°F @ 55% → 69°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 68-69°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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