WeatherNYC
NYC Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in NYC on October 14? $31.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KLGAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-19 · 6H 47M LEFT · NIGHT MAX 11%12:13 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 12:00
SW 4.6 m/s
WIND
62% RH
DEW POINT 17°
FEW · 420 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:16
DRY
PRECIP 24% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 79°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 78°F
-1.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 78.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 59°MEAN 67° · TODAY 78.0°P90 80°
LAST OBS 22 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KLGA resolution station · next METAR ~12:21 · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °F
78°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:51
68°
MIN · 07:51
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 72°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +6.0°AT 12:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 12:13 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤77°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤77°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
78-79°F▲ DAY MAX
76¢86%
MKT
MDL
37¢ → 76¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $210 · THIN
WATCH +10
80-81°F
21¢14%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 21¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $33 · THIN
WATCH -7
82-83°F
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -2
84-85°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
≥86°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KLGA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15
63°F · 45%
p10-90 62-66°F
MKT 38¢ · $11.6K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
75°F · 31%
p10-90 70-78°F
MKT 27¢ · $1.1K
Model track record · NYCScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
33%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
10 of 30 days
0.92
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
70-71°F @ 57% → 72°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 72-73°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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