WeatherMunich
Munich Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Munich on October 21? $37.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EDDMPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-16 · PASSED18:55 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:20
WNW 3.1 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 9°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:12
PRECIP NOW · -RA -DZ
PRECIP 95% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 12°CPEAK PASSED · 11°C HOLDS
+0.0°/h
RATE
-
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.4°
TO 11.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 11°MEAN 15° · TODAY 11.1°P90 21°
DATA STALE · OBS 4H 55M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
EDDM resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
11.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 16:20
6.1°
MIN · 03:20
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 8.9°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +2.2°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:55 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤10°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤10°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
11°C▲ DAY MAX
94¢28%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 94¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $345 · THIN
⚡EDGE -66market rich
12°C
4¢67%
MKT
MDL
33¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
⚡EDGE +62
13°C
2¢4%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +2
14°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +2
15°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: EDDM
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · MunichScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
1.10
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
15°C @ 47% → 8.9°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 9°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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