WeatherMunich
Munich Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Munich on September 6? $64.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EDDMPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 24°C @ 100¢18:09 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
NE 2.6 m/s
WIND
41% RH
DEW POINT 8°
- · 280 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:44
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 14°MEAN 21° · TODAY 24.0°P90 28°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 58M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
EDDM resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
24.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 17:20
7.0°
MIN · 06:50
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 24.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:09 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤23°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
24°C
100¢98%
MKT
MDL
58¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.0K
25°C
0¢1%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
26°C
0¢1%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
27°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
≥28°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: EDDM
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · MunichScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
2%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
1 of 41 days
1.36
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
24°C @ 51% → 24.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 24°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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