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WeatherMunich
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Munich Temperature Markets on Polymarket

3 live events
Highest temperature in Munich on July 23? — $62.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EDDMPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 22°C @ 100¢18:29 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
NW 4.6 m/s
WIND
40% RH
DEW POINT 7°
— · 434 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 21:01
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 1M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
EDDM resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
22.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 17:20
15.0°
MIN · 07:20
141618202221° · 0¢22° · 100¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 22.0° · 17:20NOW 18:29000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 25.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.0°AT 18:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 18:29 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤21°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
22°C
100¢29%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.1K
23°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
62¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $17 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — EDDM
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 24
23°C · 76%
p10–90 22.4–23.3°C
MKT 47¢ · $14.8K
SAT 25
29°C · 47%
p10–90 27.6–29.3°C
MKT 38¢ · $2.2K
— Model track record · MunichScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.44
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
22°C @ 55% → 25.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 25°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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