WeatherMoscow
Moscow Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Moscow on October 22? $4.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: UUWWPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 5-22 · IN 1H · NIGHT MAX 25%04:02 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 03:30
ESE 3.1 m/s
WIND
65% RH
DEW POINT -1°
SUN DOWN
RISES 07:15
DRY
PRECIP 10% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 7°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 6°C
+0.0°/h
RATE
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 6.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 4°MEAN 9° · TODAY 6.0°P90 14°
DATA STALE · OBS 3H 57M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
UUWW resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
6.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:30
5.0°
MIN · 03:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 12.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 04:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 04:02 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤5°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤5°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
6°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +2
7°C
1¢8%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH +6
8°C
10¢26%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
⚡EDGE +16
9°C
34¢33%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 34¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $73 · THIN
FAIR 0
10°C
38¢28%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $176 · THIN
WATCH -10
11°C
14¢4%
MKT
MDL
16¢ → 14¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
WATCH -11
12°C
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR -4
Σ market 103¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: UUWW
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · MoscowScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
47%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
14 of 30 days
0.75
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
11°C @ 67% → 12.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 12°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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