WeatherMoscow
Moscow Temperature Markets on Polymarket
3 live eventsHighest temperature in Moscow on July 23? — $30.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: UUWWPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 22°C @ 100¢19:23 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:00
NNW 4.1 m/s
WIND
68% RH
DEW POINT 13°
SCT · 199 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:53
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
LAST OBS 83 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
UUWW resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
22.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 17:30
14.0°
MIN · 06:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 24.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 19:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 19:23 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤21°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
22°C
100¢28%
MKT
MDL
43¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $763 · THIN
23°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — UUWW
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 24
22°C · 59%
p10–90 20.9–22.9°C
MKT 41¢ · $7.0K
SAT 25WIDE SPREAD
23°C · 35%
p10–90 18.1–24.0°C
MKT 31¢ · $5.3K
— Model track record · MoscowScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
50%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
2 of 4 days
0.82
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
23°C @ 57% → 24.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 24°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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