WeatherMoscow
Moscow Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Moscow on October 14? $16.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: UUWWPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 9°C @ 99¢18:19 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
N 4.1 m/s
WIND
93% RH
DEW POINT 7°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:33
PRECIP NOW · -RA
PRECIP 73% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 4°MEAN 9° · TODAY 9.0°P90 14°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 18M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
UUWW resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
9.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 17:00
8.0°
MIN · 18:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 11.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:19 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤8°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
9°C
99¢69%
MKT
MDL
53¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $285 · THIN
10°C
0¢25%
MKT
MDL
29¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
11°C
0¢6%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
12°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
13°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: UUWW
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15WIDE SPREAD
13°C · 27%
p10-90 9.9-13.5°C
MKT 41¢ · $6.3K
FRI 16
17°C · 57%
p10-90 16.1-17.6°C
MKT 32¢ · $530
Model track record · MoscowScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
57%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
17 of 30 days
0.61
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
11°C @ 49% → 11.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 11°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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