WeatherMilan
Milan Temperature Markets on Polymarket
3 live eventsHighest temperature in Milan on July 23? — $45.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LIMCPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 30°C @ 96¢18:30 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
W 4.1 m/s
WIND
37% RH
DEW POINT 13°
— · 518 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 21:04
DRY
PRECIP 3% TODAY
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 3M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
LIMC resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
30.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 15:50
18.0°
MIN · 06:50
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 29.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 18:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 18:30 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤29°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
30°C
96¢31%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 96¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.4K
31°C
2¢57%
MKT
MDL
56¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
32°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
16¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — LIMC
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · MilanScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.13
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 61% → 29.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 29°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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