WeatherMiami
Miami Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Miami on July 23? — $17.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KMIAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · 3H 31M LEFT12:29 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 12:00
E 6.2 m/s
WIND
68% RH
DEW POINT 24°
BKN · 521 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:12
DRY
PRECIP 10% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 91°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 90°F
-1.8°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.3°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.9°
TO 90.5° BOUND
LAST OBS 89 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
KMIA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °F
90°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:36
82°
MIN · 07:56
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 91°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.8°AT 12:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 12:29 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤87°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
88-89°FELIM
7¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 7¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
WATCH -7
max already 90° — still bid
90-91°F▲ DAY MAX
42¢29%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 41¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $38 · THIN
WATCH -12
92-93°F
55¢0%
MKT
MDL
54¢ → 55¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $47 · THIN
⚡EDGE -55
94-95°F
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
FAIR -2
96-97°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR -1
Σ market 107¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — KMIA
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · MiamiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.14
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
88-89°F @ 75% → 91°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 90-91°F
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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