WeatherMiami
Miami Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Miami on October 21? $30.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KMIAPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 84-85°F @ 100¢22:24 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 22:00
N 0.0 m/s
WIND
60% RH
DEW POINT 17°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:48
DRY
PRECIP 1% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 82°MEAN 86° · TODAY 83.0°P90 90°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 31M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KMIA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °F
83°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:53
70°
MIN · 06:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 84°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +7.0°AT 22:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 22:24 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤81°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
82-83°F
0¢98%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
84-85°F
100¢2%
MKT
MDL
55¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.5K
86-87°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
88-89°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
90-91°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KMIA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · MiamiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
1.23
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
82-83°F @ 55% → 84°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 84-85°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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