WeatherMiami
Miami Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Miami on October 14? $34.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KMIAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 8-16 · 2H 40M LEFT13:20 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
E 6.7 m/s
WIND · GUST 10.3
67% RH
DEW POINT 23°
SCT · 651 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:54
DRY
PRECIP 17% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 88°FON PACE · 88°F LIVE
+1.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.2°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 87.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 82°MEAN 86° · TODAY 87.0°P90 90°
LAST OBS 43 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KMIA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °F
87°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:53
78°
MIN · 06:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 88°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:20 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤85°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
86-87°F▲ DAY MAX
73¢80%
MKT
MDL
55¢ → 73¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $84 · THIN
WATCH +8
88-89°F
26¢19%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 25¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $40 · THIN
WATCH -7
90-91°F
1¢1%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
92-93°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
94-95°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KMIA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · MiamiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
1.23
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
86-87°F @ 71% → 88°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 88-89°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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