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WeatherMiami
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Miami

6 live events
Highest temperature in Miami on September 6? $102.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KMIAPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 90-91°F @ 100¢17:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 17:00
E 2.6 m/s
WIND
90% RH
DEW POINT 24°
FEW · 162 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:35
SHOWERS 38% BY 17:00
PRECIP 38% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 88°MEAN 90° · TODAY 89.6°P90 93°
DATA STALE · OBS 6H 3M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KMIA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °F
90°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:13
77°
MIN · 04:53
7680848888-89° · 0¢90-91° · 100¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 90° · 13:13NOW 17:17000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 91°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.2°AT 17:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 17:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤89°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
92-93°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
94-95°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
96-97°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
≥98°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
90-91°F
100¢100%
MKT
MDL
46¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.2K
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KMIA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
86°F · 47%
p10-90 84-88°F
MKT 52¢ · $15.9K
TUE 08
86°F · 51%
p10-90 83-87°F
MKT 52¢ · $5.6K
Model track record · MiamiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-07
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.16
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
86-87°F @ 49% → 91°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 90-91°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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