WeatherMexico City
Mexico City Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Mexico City on October 14? $10.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MMMXPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 5H 32M LEFT10:28 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 09:44
SSE 2.1 m/s
WIND
68% RH
DEW POINT 13°
SCT · 451 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:13
DRY
PRECIP 14% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 18°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 17°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 17.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 20°MEAN 23° · TODAY 17.2°P90 26°
LAST OBS 45 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
MMMX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~10:40 · all temps °C
17.2°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:40
12.8°
MIN · 06:42
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 26.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -5.0°AT 10:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 10:28 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤17°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
FAIR 0
18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR 0
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
21°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
22°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR 0
23°C
1¢8%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
WATCH +7
24°C
5¢63%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
⚡EDGE +58
25°C
57¢28%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 57¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $119 · THIN
⚡EDGE -29
26°C
36¢2%
MKT
MDL
46¢ → 36¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $36 · THIN
⚡EDGE -34
≥27°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: MMMX
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15
22°C · 47%
p10-90 21.6-23.8°C
MKT 45¢ · $6.0K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
23°C · 25%
p10-90 20.1-23.9°C
MKT 32¢ · $260
Model track record · Mexico CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
20%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
6 of 30 days
0.95
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
24°C @ 67% → 26.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 26°C or higher
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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