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WeatherMexico City
MX

Mexico City

6 live events
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 6? $12.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MMMXPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 4H08:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 08:00
E 2.1 m/s
WIND
82% RH
DEW POINT 13°
SCT · 199 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:47
SHOWERS 100% BY 13:00
PRECIP 100% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 17°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 4H
+0.8°/h
RATE · PRE-PEAK WARMING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 16.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 21°MEAN 24° · TODAY 16.0°P90 26°
DATA STALE · OBS 4H 24M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
MMMX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~10:40 · all temps °C
16.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 07:54
15.0°
MIN · 06:42
161820222417° · 0¢22° · 6¢23° · 28¢24° · 40¢25° · 21¢≤16° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 16.0° · 07:54NOW 08:17000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 26.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.0°AT 08:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 08:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
24°C
40¢53%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 40¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $212 · THIN
WATCH +13
23°C
28¢16%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 28¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $149 · THIN
WATCH -12
22°C
6¢14%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH +8
25°C
21¢16%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 21¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $99 · THIN
WATCH -5
≥26°C
3¢2%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
FAIR -1
≤16°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR 0
17°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR 0
21°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 97¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: MMMX
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
22°C · 47%
p10-90 21.1-23.4°C
MKT 43¢ · $4.3K
TUE 08
22°C · 37%
p10-90 20.8-24.0°C
MKT 45¢ · $95
Model track record · Mexico CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
34%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
14 of 41 days
0.73
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
26°C @ 43% → 26.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 26°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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