WeatherMexico City
Mexico City Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Mexico City on July 23? — $13.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MMMXPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · IN 2H10:30 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 09:41
N 0.0 m/s
WIND
56% RH
DEW POINT 11°
FEW · 670 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:16
DRY
PRECIP 2% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 21°CON PACE · 21°C LIVE
+2.2°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 20.5° BOUND
LAST OBS 103 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
MMMX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~10:40 · all temps °C
20.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:41
12.0°
MIN · 06:43
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 27.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 10:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 10:30 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
25°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -1
26°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR -2
27°C
25¢2%
MKT
MDL
28¢ → 25¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
⚡EDGE -22
28°C
53¢37%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 52¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $27 · THIN
⚡EDGE -15
29°C
19¢51%
MKT
MDL
20¢ → 19¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
⚡EDGE +33
30°C
4¢8%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR +4
31°C
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +1
Σ market 103¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — MMMX
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · Mexico CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
25%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
1 of 4 days
0.80
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
28°C @ 51% → 27.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 27°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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