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WeatherMexico City
MX

Mexico City

6 live events
Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 21? $21.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: MMMXPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 2H 35M LEFT13:25 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
N 2.1 m/s
WIND
49% RH
DEW POINT 10°
BKN · 789 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:08
DRY
PRECIP 18% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 20°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 19°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.2°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.6°
TO 19.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 20°MEAN 23° · TODAY 18.9°P90 26°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 26M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
MMMX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~16:40 · all temps °C
18.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:49
13.9°
MIN · 05:40
14161820222415° · 1¢16° · 1¢17° · 1¢18° · 0¢19° · 0¢20° · 1¢21° · 26¢22° · 53¢23° · 12¢≥24° · 2¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 18.9° · 10:49NOW 13:25000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 23.9°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.9°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:25 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
22°C
53¢39%
MKT
MDL
18¢ → 52¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
WATCH -13
23°C
12¢24%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH +12
20°C
1¢12%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
WATCH +10
21°C
26¢18%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 26¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
WATCH -8
≥24°C
2¢8%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
WATCH +6
≤18°CELIM
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
19°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 96¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: MMMX
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 22
22°C · 41%
p10-90 20.5-22.9°C
MKT 36¢ · $5.6K
FRI 23
24°C · 41%
p10-90 22.2-24.6°C
MKT 37¢ · $214
Model track record · Mexico CityScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
0.91
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
22°C @ 31% → 23.9°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 24°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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