WeatherManila
Manila Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Manila on September 7? $9.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RPLLPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 8H04:35 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 04:00
N 0.0 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:44
SHOWERS 100% BY 04:00
PRECIP 100% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 28°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 8H
+1.0°/h
RATE · PRE-PEAK WARMING
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 27.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 29°MEAN 31° · TODAY 27.0°P90 34°
LAST OBS 37 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RPLL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
27.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
25.0°
MIN · 03:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 04:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 04:35 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤26°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤26°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
27°C▲ DAY MAX
3¢4%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
FAIR +1
28°C
10¢69%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
⚡EDGE +59
29°C
28¢24%
MKT
MDL
29¢ → 28¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $260 · THIN
WATCH -5
30°C
37¢4%
MKT
MDL
43¢ → 37¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.3K
⚡EDGE -33
31°C
16¢0%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 16¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $144 · THIN
⚡EDGE -16
32°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $46 · THIN
WATCH -5
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RPLL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ManilaScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
12%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
5 of 42 days
1.17
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
28°C @ 84% → 30.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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