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WeatherManila
PH

Manila

2 live events
Highest temperature in Manila on October 22? $15.2K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RPLLPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 7-16 · 6H 45M LEFT09:15 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 09:00
W 3.1 m/s
WIND
70% RH
DEW POINT 25°
FEW · 495 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 17:32
SHOWERS 61% BY 16:00
PRECIP 61% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 29°MEAN 32° · TODAY 30.0°P90 34°
LAST OBS 15 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RPLL resolution station · next METAR ~09:30 · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
30.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
28.9°
MIN · 01:00
28293031323329° · 0¢30° · 0¢31° · 1¢32° · 22¢33° · 50¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 32.2°DAY MAX 30.0° · 00:00NOW 09:15000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -2.2°AT 09:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 09:15 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
32°C
22¢57%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 22¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $33 · THIN
⚡EDGE +35
34°C
19¢0%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 19¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $23 · THIN
⚡EDGE -19
33°C
50¢35%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 50¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $71 · THIN
WATCH -14
31°C
1¢8%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH +7
35°C
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR -4
≤29°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
30°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 95¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RPLL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
32°C · 65%
p10-90 31.0-32.2°C
MKT 55¢ · $3.4K
Model track record · ManilaScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-09
14%
LEADER HIT RATE · 43D
6 of 43 days
1.27
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
32°C @ 88% → 32.2°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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