Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station: LEMD

Nearby sensors: PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide

Model track record · MadridScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22

23%

LEADER HIT RATE · 30D

7 of 30 days

1.02

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

18°C @ 78% → 18.9°C✗ MISS

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 19°C

LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.

Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets

Smart money is a Pro feature

Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.

Upgrade to Pro

Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/madrid→ same feed this page reads