WeatherMadrid
Madrid Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Madrid on October 14? $33.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LEMDPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 28°C @ 100¢18:52 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:30
S 1.5 m/s
WIND
42% RH
DEW POINT 13°
- · 322 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:35
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 16°MEAN 23° · TODAY 27.8°P90 29°
LAST OBS 22 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LEMD resolution station · next METAR ~19:00 · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
27.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 17:30
13.9°
MIN · 09:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 28.9°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:52 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
28°C
100¢100%
MKT
MDL
58¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.5K
29°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
20¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
30°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
31°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
≥32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LEMD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · MadridScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
1.02
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
29°C @ 57% → 28.9°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 29°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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