WeatherLucknow
Lucknow Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Lucknow on October 14? $31.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: VILKPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 33°C @ 100¢22:00 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:30
N 0.0 m/s
WIND
100% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:39
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 30°MEAN 32° · TODAY 32.8°P90 34°
LAST OBS 31 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
VILK resolution station · next METAR ~22:00 · next ENS pull ~22:10 · all temps °C
32.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:00
22.8°
MIN · 06:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.8°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 22:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 22:00 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤32°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
33°C
100¢100%
MKT
MDL
23¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.0K
34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
35°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
36°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
≥37°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: VILK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · LucknowScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
20%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
6 of 30 days
1.13
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
31°C @ 78% → 32.8°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 33°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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