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Lucknow

4 live events
Highest temperature in Lucknow on September 7? $6.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: VILKPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 11H01:04 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 00:30
SE 1.5 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 26°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:48
SHOWERS 98% BY 00:30
PRECIP 98% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 88D
P10 30°MEAN 32° · TODAY 26.0°P90 34°
LAST OBS 65 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
VILK resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~04:10 · all temps °C
26.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
26.0°
MIN · 00:00
2426283025° · 0¢26° · 0¢27° · 1¢28° · 4¢29° · 15¢30° · 43¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 26.0° · 00:00NOW 01:04000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 31.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 01:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 01:04 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
31°C
33¢6%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 33¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $88 · THIN
⚡EDGE -27
29°C
15¢41%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 15¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $29 · THIN
⚡EDGE +26
30°C
43¢31%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 43¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $36 · THIN
WATCH -12
28°C
4¢12%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH +8
27°C
1¢8%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
WATCH +7
32°C
8¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $68 · THIN
WATCH -5
33°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR -3
≤25°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
26°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 106¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: VILK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08WIDE SPREAD
29°C · 27%
p10-90 27.2-31.1°C
MKT 45¢ · $1.1K
Model track record · LucknowScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
31%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
13 of 42 days
0.79
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 43% → 31.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 31°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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