WeatherLos Angeles
Los Angeles Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 23? — $62.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KLAXPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · IN 3H09:31 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 09:00
ESE 2.1 m/s
WIND
67% RH
DEW POINT 18°
FEW · 469 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:01
DRY
PRECIP 1% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 76°FWARMUP · PEAK IN 3H
+3.6°/h
RATE · PRE-PEAK WARMING
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 75.5° BOUND
LAST OBS 91 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
KLAX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~09:40 · all temps °F
75°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 08:53
70°
MIN · 06:21
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 77°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +3.6°AT 09:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 09:31 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤73°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
74-75°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $46 · THIN
FAIR 0
76-77°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR -1
78-79°F
12¢0%
MKT
MDL
23¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
WATCH -11
80-81°F
64¢0%
MKT
MDL
58¢ → 63¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $132 · THIN
⚡EDGE -63
82-83°F
26¢0%
MKT
MDL
15¢ → 25¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE -25
84-85°F
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
FAIR -3
86-87°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
FAIR -1
88-89°F
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +4
≥90°F
0¢96%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
⚡EDGE +96
Σ market 107¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — KLAX
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · Los AngelesScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.61
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
86°F or higher @ 78% → 77°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 76-77°F
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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