WeatherLos Angeles
Los Angeles Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6? $52.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KLAXPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 2H 39M LEFT13:21 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
NE 3.6 m/s
WIND
90% RH
DEW POINT 20°
FEW · 259 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:12
PRECIP NOW · RA BR
PRECIP 55% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 76°FON PACE · 76°F LIVE
+1.8°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 75.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 69°MEAN 75° · TODAY 75.2°P90 80°
LAST OBS 44 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KLAX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~15:40 · all temps °F
75°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 03:53
66°
MIN · 09:26
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 81°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -9.0°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:21 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤73°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤73°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
74-75°F▲ DAY MAX
53¢33%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 53¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $145 · THIN
⚡EDGE -20market rich
76-77°F
33¢40%
MKT
MDL
10¢ → 32¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
WATCH +8
78-79°F
19¢20%
MKT
MDL
29¢ → 19¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $17 · THIN
FAIR +1
80-81°F
2¢5%
MKT
MDL
35¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR +3
82-83°F
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR +1
Σ market 107¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KLAX
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
90°F · 39%
p10-90 84-90°F
MKT 35¢ · $10.9K
TUE 08WIDE SPREAD
90°F · 41%
p10-90 86-92°F
MKT 40¢ · $3.9K
Model track record · Los AngelesScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
0 of 41 days
1.74
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
86°F or higher @ 100% → 81°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 80-81°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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