WeatherLos Angeles
Los Angeles Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on October 21? $37.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KLAXPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 72-73°F @ 100¢20:24 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 20:00
E 2.6 m/s
WIND
87% RH
DEW POINT 16°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:12
SHOWERS 50% BY 20:00
PRECIP 50% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 68°MEAN 73° · TODAY 71.0°P90 80°
LAST OBS 94 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KLAX resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~21:40 · all temps °F
71°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:53
64°
MIN · 06:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 80°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +3.0°AT 20:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 20:24 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤69°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
70-71°F
0¢20%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
72-73°F
100¢35%
MKT
MDL
39¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.0K
74-75°F
2¢26%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
76-77°F
0¢18%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
≥78°F
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KLAX
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Los AngelesScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.38
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
82°F or higher @ 100% → 80°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 80-81°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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