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WeatherKuala Lumpur
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Kuala Lumpur

2 live events
Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on October 15? $3.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: WMKKPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-16 · IN 8H01:13 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 01:00
NE 2.6 m/s
WIND
89% RH
DEW POINT 24°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:57
PRECIP NOW · -TSRA
PRECIP 96% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 30°MEAN 32° · TODAY 26.1°P90 34°
LAST OBS 13 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
WMKK resolution station · next METAR ~01:30 · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
26.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
26.1°
MIN · 00:00
242628303231° · 2¢32° · 8¢33° · 41¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 32.2°DAY MAX 26.1° · 00:00NOW 01:13000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 01:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 01:13 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
34°C
47¢4%
MKT
MDL
43¢ → 47¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $394 · THIN
⚡EDGE -43
32°C
8¢43%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE +36
33°C
41¢14%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 41¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $113 · THIN
⚡EDGE -27
31°C
2¢28%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
⚡EDGE +26
30°C
0¢12%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
WATCH +11
35°C
8¢0%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $19 · THIN
WATCH -7
≤29°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: WMKK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 16
32°C · 39%
p10-90 30.0-32.3°C
MKT 43¢ · $885
Model track record · Kuala LumpurScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-05
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 40D
9 of 40 days
0.93
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
33°C @ 33% → 32.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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