WeatherKarachi
Karachi Temperature Markets on Polymarket
3 live eventsHighest temperature in Karachi on July 23? — $37.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: OPKCPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 35°C @ 100¢21:30 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:00
SW 4.1 m/s
WIND
75% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
SET 19:20
DRY
PRECIP 18% TODAY
LAST OBS 82 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
OPKC resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~21:40 · all temps °C
35.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:30
29.0°
MIN · 07:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 34.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 21:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 21:30 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤34°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
35°C
100¢8%
MKT
MDL
97¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.1K
36°C
0¢47%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
37°C
0¢22%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
38°C
0¢14%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
≥39°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — OPKC
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 24
36°C · 53%
p10–90 34.2–36.4°C
MKT 38¢ · $11.3K
SAT 25WIDE SPREAD
35°C · 22%
p10–90 33.9–38.1°C
MKT 38¢ · $4.3K
— Model track record · KarachiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
50%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
2 of 4 days
0.56
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
34°C @ 65% → 34.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 34°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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