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WeatherJeddah
SA

Jeddah

4 live events
Highest temperature in Jeddah on September 7? $8.2K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: OEJNPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 7H05:44 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 05:00
VRB 1.5 m/s
WIND
59% RH
DEW POINT 22°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:08
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 33°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 7H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 32.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 36°MEAN 38° · TODAY 32.0°P90 40°
LAST OBS 116 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
OEJN resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
32.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 04:00
31.0°
MIN · 00:00
28303234363831° · 0¢32° · 0¢33° · 1¢34° · 2¢35° · 5¢36° · 28¢37° · 48¢38° · 18¢≥39° · 3¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 38.0°DAY MAX 32.0° · 04:00NOW 05:44000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 38.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 05:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 05:44 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
37°C
48¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2.1K
⚡EDGE -47
38°C
18¢59%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $57 · THIN
⚡EDGE +41
≥39°C
3¢41%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
⚡EDGE +38
36°C
28¢0%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 28¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $62 · THIN
⚡EDGE -28
35°C
5¢0%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR -4
34°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -1
≤31°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
33°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
32°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 103¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: OEJN
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08
39°C · 43%
p10-90 37.2-39.4°C
MKT 41¢ · $1.9K
Model track record · JeddahScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
24%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
10 of 42 days
1.24
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
39°C @ 82% → 38.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 38°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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