WeatherJeddah

Jeddah Temperature Markets on Polymarket

3 live events

Highest temperature in Jeddah on July 23? — $38.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: OEJNPolymarket|Resolution source

SETTLED · ≥39°C @ 100¢19:35 LOCAL · 2026-07-23

CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:00

WNW 1.0 m/s

WIND

47% RH

DEW POINT 22°

SUN DOWN

SET 19:06

DRY

PRECIP 0% TODAY

LAST OBS 83 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S

Today — hourly observations vs ensemble

OEJN resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C

40.0°

RUNNING MAX · SINCE 12:00

30.0°

MIN · 06:00

Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 38.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 19:00

— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 19:35 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts

≤38°CELIM

1¢0%

MKT

MDL

After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station — OEJN

Nearby sensors — PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide

— Model track record · JeddahScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19

50%

LEADER HIT RATE · 4D

2 of 4 days

0.74

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

40°C @ 67% → 38.0°C✗ MISS

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 38°C

LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.

— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets

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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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