WeatherJeddah
Jeddah Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Jeddah on October 22? $14.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: OEJNPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 35°C @ 99¢16:42 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 16:00
W 4.1 m/s
WIND
71% RH
DEW POINT 26°
- · 420 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 17:53
DRY
PRECIP 19% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 35°MEAN 37°P90 40°
LAST OBS 93 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
OEJN resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 36.1°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 16:42 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤29°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
30°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
31°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
42¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
35°C
99¢0%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $742 · THIN
36°C
0¢80%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
37°C
1¢20%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: OEJN
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · JeddahScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
3%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
1 of 30 days
1.48
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
38°C @ 67% → 36.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 36°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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