WeatherIstanbul
Istanbul Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 6? $18.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LTFMPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 29°C @ 100¢21:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:00
E 5.7 m/s
WIND
74% RH
DEW POINT 19°
SUN DOWN
SET 19:30
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY ABOVE P90 · RARE HEAT
P10 23°MEAN 25° · TODAY 29.0°P90 28°
LAST OBS 18 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LTFM resolution station · next METAR ~21:30 · next ENS pull ~01:40 · all temps °C
29.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:00
19.0°
MIN · 07:20
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 26.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 21:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 21:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°C
100¢92%
MKT
MDL
36¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.8K
30°C
0¢6%
MKT
MDL
24¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
31°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LTFM
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · IstanbulScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
44%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
18 of 41 days
0.74
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
27°C @ 82% → 26.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 26°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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