WeatherIstanbul
Istanbul Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Istanbul on October 14? $11.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LTFMPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 17°C @ 100¢19:39 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:20
N 19.0 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 14°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:26
PRECIP NOW · SHRA
PRECIP 100% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 17°MEAN 20° · TODAY 17.0°P90 26°
LAST OBS 20 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LTFM resolution station · next METAR ~19:50 · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
17.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 08:20
15.0°
MIN · 19:20
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 19.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 19:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 19:39 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤16°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
17°C
100¢96%
MKT
MDL
50¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $878 · THIN
18°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
21°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LTFM
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · IstanbulScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.93
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
17°C or below @ 75% → 19.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 19°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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