WeatherIstanbul
Istanbul Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Istanbul on October 22? $53.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LTFMPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 5-16 · 0H 20M LEFT · NIGHT MAX 13%15:40 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 15:20
SSW 4.6 m/s
WIND
41% RH
DEW POINT 10°
- · 422 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:13
DRY
PRECIP 10% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 25°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 24°C
+0.7°/h
RATE
+1.5°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 24.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 17°MEAN 20° · TODAY 24.0°P90 26°
DATA STALE · OBS 6H 10M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LTFM resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
24.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 15:20
13.0°
MIN · 04:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 22.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +4.0°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:40 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤15°CELIM
55¢0%
MKT
MDL
66¢ → 55¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $57 · THIN
⚡EDGE -55
max already 24.0°, still bid
16°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $17 · THIN
17°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
18°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
19°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
20°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
21°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
22°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
20¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
23°CELIM
12¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH -12
max already 24.0°, still bid
24°C▲ DAY MAX
37¢97%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 37¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $23 · THIN
⚡EDGE +60model over market
≥25°C
0¢3%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR +3
Σ market 107¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LTFM
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · IstanbulScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.89
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
21°C @ 80% → 22.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 22°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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