After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station — LTFM

Nearby sensors — PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide

— Model track record · IstanbulScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19

75%

LEADER HIT RATE · 4D

3 of 4 days

0.36

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

29°C @ 57% → 34.0°C✗ MISS

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 34°C or higher

LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.

— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets

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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/istanbul→ same feed this page reads