🐋OrcaLayer
Sign In
WeatherHouston
US

Houston

6 live events
Highest temperature in Houston on October 21? $26.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KHOUPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 84-85°F @ 98¢17:37 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 17:00
VRB 2.6 m/s
WIND
44% RH
DEW POINT 16°
SCT · 111 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:44
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 74°MEAN 85° · TODAY 81.0°P90 92°
LAST OBS 91 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KHOU resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
81°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 12:53
71°
MIN · 07:53
6872768078-79° · 0¢80-81° · 0¢82-83° · 1¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 81° · 12:53NOW 17:37000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 82°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 17:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 17:37 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
84-85°F
98¢2%
MKT
MDL
48¢ → 98¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $262 · THIN
82-83°F
1¢69%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
80-81°F
0¢29%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
86-87°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
≤79°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
88-89°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KHOU
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 22
82°F · 84%
p10-90 81-83°F
MKT 67¢ · $15.0K
FRI 23
84°F · 53%
p10-90 83-85°F
MKT 66¢ · $1.7K
Model track record · HoustonScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.91
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
80-81°F @ 53% → 82°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 82-83°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to Pro
Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/houston→ same feed this page reads