WeatherHouston
Houston Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Houston on October 14? $16.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KHOUPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 4H 36M LEFT11:24 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
SSE 5.7 m/s
WIND
68% RH
DEW POINT 24°
SCT · 415 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:51
DRY
PRECIP 3% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 84°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 83°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 83.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 74°MEAN 85° · TODAY 83.0°P90 92°
LAST OBS 31 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KHOU resolution station · next METAR ~11:23 · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °F
83°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:53
79°
MIN · 06:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 92°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.0°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:24 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤81°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤81°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
82-83°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR 0
84-85°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR 0
86-87°F
1¢43%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE +42
88-89°F
29¢51%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 29¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $27 · THIN
⚡EDGE +22
90-91°F
64¢6%
MKT
MDL
62¢ → 63¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $108 · THIN
⚡EDGE -58
92-93°F
8¢0%
MKT
MDL
7¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
WATCH -8
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KHOU
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · HoustonScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
47%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
14 of 30 days
0.80
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
88-89°F @ 55% → 92°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 92-93°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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