WeatherHouston
Houston Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Houston on September 6? $42.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KHOUPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 2H 43M LEFT13:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
S 4.1 m/s
WIND
70% RH
DEW POINT 24°
SCT · 548 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:37
SHOWERS 54% BY 13:00
PRECIP 54% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 89°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 88°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.3°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.7°
TO 88.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 87°MEAN 92° · TODAY 87.8°P90 97°
LAST OBS 85 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KHOU resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
88°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:53
81°
MIN · 07:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 91°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.8°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤85°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤85°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
86-87°FELIM
17¢0%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE -16
max already 88°, still bid
88-89°F▲ DAY MAX
36¢80%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 36¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $22 · THIN
⚡EDGE +44model over market
90-91°F
40¢18%
MKT
MDL
37¢ → 40¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
⚡EDGE -22
92-93°F
11¢2%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH -8
94-95°F
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
11¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KHOU
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · HoustonScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
29%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
12 of 41 days
0.84
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
88-89°F @ 35% → 91°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 90-91°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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