WeatherHong Kong
Hong Kong Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 7? $8.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: HKOPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 10H02:21 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 02:00
N 1.5 m/s
WIND
84% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:08
SHOWERS 84% BY 10:00
NO TC WARNING
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 29°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 10H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 28.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 29°MEAN 32° · TODAY 28.0°P90 34°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 37M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
HKO HQ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
28.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
27.0°
MIN · 02:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 31.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 02:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 02:21 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
28°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
29°C
3¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +1
30°C
13¢29%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 13¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
⚡EDGE +16
31°C
37¢47%
MKT
MDL
36¢ → 37¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $684 · THIN
WATCH +10
32°C
37¢20%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 37¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $492 · THIN
⚡EDGE -17
33°C
14¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $70 · THIN
WATCH -14
34°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $55 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 106¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: HKO HQ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Hong KongScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-08
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
0.95
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 65% → 31.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 31°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: Hong Kong Observatory · METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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