WeatherHong Kong
Hong Kong Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Hong Kong on October 22? $20.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: HKOPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 5-16 · 8H 37M LEFT · NIGHT MAX 10%07:23 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 07:00
N 4.6 m/s
WIND
61% RH
DEW POINT 18°
FEW · 16 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 17:53
DRY
NO TC WARNING
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 29°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 28°C
-1.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 28.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 27°MEAN 30° · TODAY 28.0°P90 33°
LAST OBS 24 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
HKO HQ resolution station · next METAR ~07:30 · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
28.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
26.0°
MIN · 07:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 07:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 07:23 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
28°C▲ DAY MAX
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
FAIR -1
29°C
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $19 · THIN
FAIR -4
30°C
27¢24%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 27¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $325 · THIN
FAIR -3
31°C
52¢71%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $715 · THIN
⚡EDGE +19
32°C
18¢6%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $119 · THIN
WATCH -12
33°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 104¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: HKO HQ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Hong KongScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
20%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
6 of 30 days
1.05
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
34°C @ 57% → 32.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: Hong Kong Observatory · METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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