WeatherHelsinki
Helsinki Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Helsinki on September 7? $13.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EFHKPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 5H07:28 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 07:00
W 2.1 m/s
WIND
93% RH
DEW POINT 1°
- · 6 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:07
DRY
PRECIP 10% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 8°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 5H
-2.0°/h ↓
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 7.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 14°MEAN 18° · TODAY 7.0°P90 22°
DATA STALE · OBS 4H 20M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
EFHK resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
7.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:50
3.0°
MIN · 05:50
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 15.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.0°AT 07:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 07:28 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤12°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
13°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
14°C
0¢12%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
WATCH +12
15°C
4¢65%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
⚡EDGE +61
16°C
18¢24%
MKT
MDL
21¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $76 · THIN
WATCH +6
17°C
72¢0%
MKT
MDL
70¢ → 72¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $201 · THIN
⚡EDGE -72
18°C
12¢0%
MKT
MDL
10¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $72 · THIN
WATCH -11
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: EFHK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · HelsinkiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
19%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
8 of 42 days
1.15
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
15°C @ 69% → 15.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 15°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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