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WeatherGuangzhou
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Guangzhou

6 live events
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 22? $23.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZGGGPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 30°C @ 100¢18:23 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
N 6.2 m/s
WIND
61% RH
DEW POINT 18°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:55
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 25°MEAN 31° · TODAY 25.0°P90 36°
LAST OBS 24 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZGGG resolution station · next METAR ~18:30 · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
25.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
25.0°
MIN · 01:00
23242526272826° · 0¢≤25° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 25.0° · 01:00NOW 18:23000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 35.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -5.0°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:23 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
30°C
100¢55%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $893 · THIN
29°C
0¢43%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
31°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
55¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
≤25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
27°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
28°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZGGG
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
30°C · 69%
p10-90 29.1-30.4°C
MKT 46¢ · $7.7K
SAT 24
31°C · 51%
p10-90 29.6-31.0°C
MKT 41¢ · $4.0K
Model track record · GuangzhouScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
3%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
1 of 30 days
1.40
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
32°C @ 59% → 35.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 35°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/guangzhou→ same feed this page reads