🐋OrcaLayer
Sign In
WeatherGuangzhou
CN

Guangzhou

4 live events
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 7? $8.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZGGGPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 1H11:00 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 10:30
NNE 3.1 m/s
WIND
66% RH
DEW POINT 24°
- · 684 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:38
SHOWERS 55% BY 11:00
PRECIP 55% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 30°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 29°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 29.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 29°MEAN 34° · TODAY 29.0°P90 37°
DATA STALE · OBS 4H 29M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZGGG resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
29.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:00
27.0°
MIN · 07:00
262830323430° · 0¢31° · 1¢32° · 3¢33° · 9¢34° · 32¢≤29° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 30.0°DAY MAX 29.0° · 09:00NOW 11:00000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:00 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
35°C
41¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1.0K
⚡EDGE -41
33°C
9¢33%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 9¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $17 · THIN
⚡EDGE +24
36°C
12¢0%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $74 · THIN
WATCH -12
32°C
3¢14%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH +11
34°C
32¢41%
MKT
MDL
16¢ → 31¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
WATCH +10
31°C
1¢8%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
WATCH +7
≤29°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR +4
37°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
FAIR -2
30°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $34 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZGGG
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08
34°C · 98%
p10-90 33.6-34.2°C
MKT 49¢ · $3.6K
Model track record · GuangzhouScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
19%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
8 of 42 days
1.03
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
31°C @ 29% → 30.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to Pro
Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/guangzhou→ same feed this page reads