WeatherDenver
Denver Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Denver on September 6? $28.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KBKFPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 4H08:38 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 08:00
W 3.6 m/s
WIND
78% RH
DEW POINT 15°
FEW · 147 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:22
DRY
PRECIP 11% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 76°FWARMUP · PEAK IN 4H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 75.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 88D
P10 70°MEAN 81° · TODAY 75.2°P90 89°
DATA STALE · OBS 7H 39M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KBKF resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~10:40 · all temps °F
75°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:12
61°
MIN · 06:58
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 93°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -14.4°AT 08:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 08:38 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤79°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR 0
80-81°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
82-83°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
84-85°F
1¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR +3
86-87°F
2¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR +2
88-89°F
7¢28%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 7¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $21 · THIN
⚡EDGE +21
90-91°F
61¢43%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 61¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $87 · THIN
⚡EDGE -18
92-93°F
24¢20%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 23¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $28 · THIN
FAIR -4
94-95°F
3¢2%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 97¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KBKF
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07WIDE SPREAD
93°F · 29%
p10-90 85-94°F
MKT 47¢ · $3.2K
TUE 08
86°F · 47%
p10-90 83-88°F
MKT 41¢ · $130
Model track record · DenverScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
15%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
6 of 41 days
1.02
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
90-91°F @ 80% → 93°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 92-93°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/denver→ same feed this page reads