WeatherDenver
Denver Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Denver on October 14? $32.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KBKFPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 5H 13M LEFT10:47 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 10:00
ENE 4.1 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 6°
OVC · 43 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:21
PRECIP NOW · -DZ BR
PRECIP 74% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 52°FON PACE · 52°F LIVE
+3.5°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 51.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 53°MEAN 69° · TODAY 51.0°P90 82°
LAST OBS 55 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KBKF resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~16:40 · all temps °F
51°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:19
45°
MIN · 08:41
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 65°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.0°AT 10:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 10:47 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤47°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤47°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
48-49°FELIM
17¢0%
MKT
MDL
28¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $84 · THIN
⚡EDGE -17
max already 51°, still bid
50-51°F▲ DAY MAX
68¢51%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 68¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $41 · THIN
⚡EDGE -17market rich
52-53°F
22¢24%
MKT
MDL
23¢ → 22¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR +2
54-55°F
3¢12%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
WATCH +9
56-57°F
1¢14%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
WATCH +13
Σ market 110¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KBKF
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15WIDE SPREAD
45°F · 22%
p10-90 44-53°F
MKT 32¢ · $6.3K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
54°F · 35%
p10-90 51-58°F
MKT 43¢ · $256
Model track record · DenverScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.86
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
64-65°F @ 43% → 65°F✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 64-65°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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