🐋OrcaLayer
Sign In
WeatherDenver
US

Denver

6 live events
Highest temperature in Denver on October 21? $15.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KBKFPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 0H 52M LEFT15:08 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 15:00
SE 6.2 m/s
WIND · GUST 9.3
20% RH
DEW POINT 0°
FEW · 560 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:10
DRY
PRECIP 2% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 63°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 62°F
+0.0°/h
RATE
+0.6°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 62.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 53°MEAN 69° · TODAY 62.0°P90 82°
DATA STALE · OBS 7H 26M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KBKF resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~16:40 · all temps °F
62°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:58
48°
MIN · 06:58
485256606468727670-71° · 1¢72-73° · 1¢74-75° · 1¢76-77° · 88¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 71°DAY MAX 62° · 09:58NOW 15:08000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 71°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -6.0°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:08 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
74-75°F
1¢91%
MKT
MDL
27¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE +90
76-77°F
88¢2%
MKT
MDL
52¢ → 88¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $133 · THIN
⚡EDGE -86
78-79°F
11¢0%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 11¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH -11
72-73°F
1¢4%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +3
≤65°F
0¢3%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR +3
70-71°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
66-67°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
68-69°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KBKF
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 22WIDE SPREAD
75°F · 25%
p10-90 69-76°F
MKT 31¢ · $6.7K
FRI 23
77°F · 47%
p10-90 76-79°F
MKT 25¢ · $929
Model track record · DenverScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.93
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
68-69°F @ 51% → 71°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 70-71°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to Pro
Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/denver→ same feed this page reads