WeatherDallas
Dallas Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Dallas on July 23? — $56.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KDALPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · IN 1H11:30 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
NE 3.6 m/s
WIND
55% RH
DEW POINT 22°
— · 714 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:32
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 92°FON PACE · 92°F LIVE
+1.8°/h
RATE
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.1°
TO 91.5° BOUND
LAST OBS 90 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
KDAL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °F
91°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:53
82°
MIN · 07:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 108°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -14.4°AT 11:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 11:30 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤91°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $24 · THIN
FAIR 0
92-93°F
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +2
94-95°F
1¢10%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
WATCH +9
96-97°F
18¢39%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
⚡EDGE +22
98-99°F
63¢35%
MKT
MDL
46¢ → 63¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $36 · THIN
⚡EDGE -28
100-101°F
19¢14%
MKT
MDL
28¢ → 19¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
FAIR -5
102-103°F
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR -3
Σ market 104¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — KDAL
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · DallasScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.02
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
100-101°F @ 43% → 108°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 108-109°F
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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