WeatherDallas
Dallas Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Dallas on September 6? $29.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KDALPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 0H 25M LEFT15:35 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 15:00
ESE 3.6 m/s
WIND
35% RH
DEW POINT 19°
SCT · 842 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:45
DRY
PRECIP 1% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 98°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 97°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+1.7°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.7°
TO 97.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 83°MEAN 91° · TODAY 96.8°P90 98°
LAST OBS 104 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KDAL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
97°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:53
81°
MIN · 07:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 99°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.8°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:35 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤95°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤95°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
96-97°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢11%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
WATCH +11
98-99°F
77¢61%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 76¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $64 · THIN
⚡EDGE -15
100-101°F
24¢26%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 24¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR +2
102-103°F
1¢3%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR +2
104-105°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KDAL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · DallasScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
29%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
12 of 41 days
0.97
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
100-101°F @ 33% → 99°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 98-99°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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