WeatherDallas

Dallas Temperature Markets on Polymarket

6 live events

Highest temperature in Dallas on October 21? $34.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KDALPolymarket|Resolution source

SETTLED · 82-83°F @ 100¢22:57 LOCAL · 2026-10-21

CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 22:00

ESE 2.1 m/s

WIND

39% RH

DEW POINT 7°

SUN DOWN

SET 18:47

DRY

PRECIP 0% TODAY

3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND

P10 70°MEAN 82° · TODAY 75.0°P90 91°

LAST OBS 93 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S

Today: hourly observations vs ensemble

KDAL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~23:40 · all temps °F

75°

RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:53

57°

MIN · 04:53

Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 79°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +10.0°AT 22:00

Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 22:57 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts

50¢ → 100¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $340 · THIN

34¢ → 0¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN

6¢ → 0¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN

1¢ → 0¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN

≤73°FELIM

0¢0%

MKT

MDL

±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN

≤73°FELIM

0¢0%

MKT

MDL

±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN

1¢ → 0¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN

6¢ → 0¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN

34¢ → 0¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN

50¢ → 100¢ TODAY

±1¢ DEPTH $340 · THIN

After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station: KDAL

Nearby sensors: PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide

p10-90 81-83°F

MKT 42¢ · $15.0K

p10-90 82-84°F

MKT 47¢ · $1.1K

p10-90 81-83°F

MKT 42¢ · $15.0K

p10-90 82-84°F

MKT 47¢ · $1.1K

Model track record · DallasScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21

27%

LEADER HIT RATE · 30D

8 of 30 days

0.98

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

78-79°F @ 63% → 79°F✓ HIT

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 78-79°F

LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.

Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets

Smart money is a Pro feature

Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.

Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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