WeatherDallas
Dallas Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Dallas on October 14? $18.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KDALPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 11-16 · IN 1H10:53 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 10:00
SSE 3.1 m/s
WIND
77% RH
DEW POINT 24°
SCT · 59 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:55
DRY
PRECIP 9% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 84°FON PACE · 84°F LIVE
+3.0°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 83.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 70°MEAN 82° · TODAY 83.0°P90 91°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 32M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KDAL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °F
83°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 09:53
79°
MIN · 07:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 94°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 10:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 10:53 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤81°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤81°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
82-83°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
84-85°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
86-87°F
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +1
88-89°F
8¢28%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $97 · THIN
⚡EDGE +19
90-91°F
37¢47%
MKT
MDL
35¢ → 37¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $21 · THIN
WATCH +10
92-93°F
45¢20%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 45¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $20 · THIN
⚡EDGE -25
94-95°F
11¢4%
MKT
MDL
11¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
WATCH -7
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KDAL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15
86°F · 47%
p10-90 85-88°F
MKT 47¢ · $10.1K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
75°F · 33%
p10-90 70-76°F
MKT 34¢ · $136
Model track record · DallasScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.98
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
90-91°F @ 65% → 94°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 94-95°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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