WeatherChongqing
Chongqing Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Chongqing on October 22? $21.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZUCKPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 19°C @ 100¢21:14 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:00
ENE 3.1 m/s
WIND
77% RH
DEW POINT 13°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:16
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 18°MEAN 23° · TODAY 17.8°P90 28°
DATA STALE · OBS 5H 31M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZUCK resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
17.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
17.8°
MIN · 01:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 22.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 21:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 21:14 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤17°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
18°C
0¢8%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
19°C
100¢35%
MKT
MDL
43¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $421 · THIN
20°C
0¢39%
MKT
MDL
28¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
21°C
0¢18%
MKT
MDL
7¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
22°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZUCK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
22°C · 51%
p10-90 21.0-23.3°C
MKT 32¢ · $7.1K
SAT 24WIDE SPREAD
24°C · 25%
p10-90 21.1-25.0°C
MKT 36¢ · $676
Model track record · ChongqingScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
33%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
10 of 30 days
0.89
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
22°C @ 39% → 22.2°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 22°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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