WeatherChicago
Chicago Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Chicago on October 14? $33.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KORDPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-16 · 4H 44M LEFT11:16 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:04
ENE 6.7 m/s
WIND
73% RH
DEW POINT 13°
BKN · 37 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:11
DRY
PRECIP 4% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 67°FON PACE · 67°F LIVE
+1.0°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 66.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 53°MEAN 66° · TODAY 66.0°P90 83°
LAST OBS 13 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KORD resolution station · next METAR ~11:34 · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °F
66°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:51
62°
MIN · 06:08
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 79°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -6.0°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:16 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤65°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤65°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
66-67°F▲ DAY MAX
88¢78%
MKT
MDL
55¢ → 88¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $144 · THIN
WATCH -9
68-69°F
12¢22%
MKT
MDL
11¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
WATCH +10
70-71°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -1
72-73°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
74-75°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KORD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15WIDE SPREAD
61°F · 29%
p10-90 59-70°F
MKT 36¢ · $8.8K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
59°F · 33%
p10-90 56-63°F
MKT 39¢ · $1.1K
Model track record · ChicagoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.33
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
76-77°F @ 59% → 79°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 78-79°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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