WeatherChicago
Chicago Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Chicago on September 6? $18.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KORDPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 2H 43M LEFT13:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
ENE 5.7 m/s
WIND
52% RH
DEW POINT 15°
FEW · 819 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:17
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 80°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 79°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.3°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.7°
TO 79.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 68°MEAN 78° · TODAY 78.8°P90 88°
LAST OBS 87 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KORD resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
79°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:51
70°
MIN · 06:51
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 81°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤77°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤77°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
78-79°F▲ DAY MAX
84¢100%
MKT
MDL
50¢ → 83¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $46 · THIN
⚡EDGE +17model over market
80-81°F
18¢0%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
⚡EDGE -17
82-83°F
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR -2
84-85°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR 0
86-87°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 104¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KORD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ChicagoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
15 of 41 days
0.77
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
80-81°F @ 47% → 81°F✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 80-81°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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