WeatherChicago
Chicago Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Chicago on October 21? $26.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KORDPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 70-71°F @ 96¢16:15 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 16:00
VRB 1.5 m/s
WIND
35% RH
DEW POINT 6°
FEW · 359 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:00
DRY
PRECIP 1% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 53°MEAN 66° · TODAY 69.0°P90 83°
LAST OBS 24 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KORD resolution station · next METAR ~16:21 · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
69°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 12:51
46°
MIN · 06:51
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 69°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 16:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 16:15 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤67°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
68-69°F
0¢99%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
70-71°F
96¢1%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 95¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $114 · THIN
72-73°F
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
56¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
74-75°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
76-77°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KORD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ChicagoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.40
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
64-65°F @ 86% → 69°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 68-69°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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