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WeatherChengdu
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Chengdu

4 live events
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 7? $13.2K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZUUUPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 10H02:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 02:00
N 2.1 m/s
WIND
62% RH
DEW POINT 20°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:43
DRY
PRECIP 4% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 24°MEAN 30° · TODAY 29.0°P90 35°
LAST OBS 78 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZUUU resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
29.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
29.0°
MIN · 01:00
24262830323429° · 1¢30° · 4¢31° · 11¢32° · 18¢33° · 33¢34° · 26¢≤28° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 29.0° · 01:00NOW 02:17000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 35.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +4.0°AT 02:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 02:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
32°C
18¢35%
MKT
MDL
18¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $121 · THIN
⚡EDGE +18
35°C
13¢0%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 13¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $56 · THIN
WATCH -12
31°C
11¢2%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $51 · THIN
WATCH -8
34°C
26¢31%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 25¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $98 · THIN
WATCH +6
30°C
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR -3
36°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $22 · THIN
FAIR -2
33°C
33¢31%
MKT
MDL
33¢ → 32¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $348 · THIN
FAIR -1
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°C▲ DAY MAX
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZUUU
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08WIDE SPREAD
31°C · 29%
p10-90 29.0-32.6°C
MKT 25¢ · $1.5K
Model track record · ChengduScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
10%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
4 of 42 days
1.24
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
33°C @ 51% → 35.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 35°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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