WeatherChengdu
Chengdu Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Chengdu on October 15? $4.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZUUUPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 5-16 · IN 5H · NIGHT MAX 10%00:42 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 00:00
NNW 2.1 m/s
WIND
88% RH
DEW POINT 18°
SUN DOWN
RISES 07:06
DRY
PRECIP 25% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 19°MEAN 22°P90 26°
LAST OBS 43 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZUUU resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 25.0°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 00:42 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
FAIR 0
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR 0
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
21°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR -1
22°C
4¢10%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $24 · THIN
WATCH +6
23°C
13¢29%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 13¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $49 · THIN
⚡EDGE +17
24°C
33¢45%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $217 · THIN
WATCH +13
25°C
34¢16%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 34¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $198 · THIN
⚡EDGE -18
26°C
12¢0%
MKT
MDL
13¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $115 · THIN
WATCH -12
Σ market 95¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZUUU
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ChengduScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-15
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
7 of 30 days
0.98
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
25°C @ 71% → 25.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 25°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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