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Chengdu

4 live events
Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 22? $15.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZUUUPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 5-16 · IN 2H · NIGHT MAX 10%03:34 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 03:00
N 2.1 m/s
WIND
100% RH
DEW POINT 14°
SUN DOWN
RISES 07:10
PRECIP NOW · -RA BR
PRECIP 55% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 19°MEAN 22° · TODAY 13.9°P90 26°
LAST OBS 78 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZUUU resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
13.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
13.9°
MIN · 01:00
1416182014° · 0¢15° · 1¢16° · 4¢17° · 13¢18° · 33¢19° · 35¢20° · 16¢21° · 3¢≤13° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 13.9° · 01:00NOW 03:34000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 22.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -6.1°AT 03:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 03:34 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
20°C
16¢51%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $53 · THIN
⚡EDGE +35
18°C
33¢12%
MKT
MDL
29¢ → 33¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $131 · THIN
⚡EDGE -21
17°C
13¢0%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 13¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $50 · THIN
WATCH -13
19°C
35¢26%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 35¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $354 · THIN
WATCH -9
21°C
3¢8%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH +5
22°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +4
16°C
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR -3
≤13°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
15°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -1
14°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 106¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZUUU
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
22°C · 67%
p10-90 21.0-22.5°C
MKT 31¢ · $105
Model track record · ChengduScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
20%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
6 of 30 days
1.02
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
20°C @ 43% → 22.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 22°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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