Σ market 106¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station — ZUUU

Nearby sensors — PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide

— Model track record · ChengduScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19

LEADER HIT RATE · 5D

0 of 5 days

1.01

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

40°C @ 45% → 37.0°C✗ MISS

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 37°C

LAST 5 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.

— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets

Smart money is a Pro feature

Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.

Upgrade to Pro

Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/chengdu→ same feed this page reads