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WeatherCape Town
ZA

Cape Town

6 live events
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 6? $35.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: FACTPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 27°C @ 100¢20:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 20:00
SW 4.1 m/s
WIND
68% RH
DEW POINT 12°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:30
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY ABOVE P90 · RARE HEAT
P10 15°MEAN 19° · TODAY 27.0°P90 24°
LAST OBS 78 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
FACT resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
27.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 15:00
15.0°
MIN · 08:00
16182022242626° · 0¢27° · 100¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 25.0°DAY MAX 27.0° · 15:00NOW 20:17000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 25.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +3.0°AT 20:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 20:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
27°C
100¢14%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $816 · THIN
28°C
0¢84%
MKT
MDL
13¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
29°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
≤26°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
30°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
31°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: FACT
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
30°C · 92%
p10-90 29.7-30.4°C
MKT 37¢ · $12.6K
TUE 08
30°C · 39%
p10-90 29.0-31.9°C
MKT 21¢ · $1.6K
Model track record · Cape TownScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
11 of 41 days
1.03
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
22°C @ 78% → 25.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 25°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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