Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station: FACT

Nearby sensors: PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide

Model track record · Cape TownScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22

43%

LEADER HIT RATE · 30D

13 of 30 days

0.79

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

18°C @ 51% → 20.0°C✗ MISS

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 20°C

LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.

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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/cape-town→ same feed this page reads