🐋OrcaLayer
Sign In
WeatherBusan
KR

Busan

4 live events
Highest temperature in Busan on October 15? $8.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RKPKPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-16 · IN 8H01:56 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 01:00
NE 2.1 m/s
WIND
71% RH
DEW POINT 5°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:29
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 18°MEAN 22° · TODAY 10.0°P90 25°
LAST OBS 57 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RKPK resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
10.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
10.0°
MIN · 00:00
812162020° · 1¢21° · 4¢22° · 45¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 21.1°DAY MAX 10.0° · 00:00NOW 01:56000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 21.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.2°AT 01:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 01:56 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
23°C
45¢8%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 44¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $731 · THIN
⚡EDGE -37
22°C
45¢67%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 45¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $141 · THIN
⚡EDGE +22
21°C
4¢26%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
⚡EDGE +21
24°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH -5
20°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -1
≤16°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
17°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RKPK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 16
25°C · 49%
p10-90 24.1-26.0°C
MKT 42¢ · $851
Model track record · BusanScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-15
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
0.92
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
20°C @ 78% → 21.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 21°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to Pro
Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/busan→ same feed this page reads