WeatherBusan
Busan Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Busan on September 7? $84.2K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RKPKPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 29°C @ 99¢15:29 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 15:00
NNE 4.6 m/s
WIND · GUST 9.8
45% RH
DEW POINT 16°
FEW · 687 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:43
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 25°MEAN 29° · TODAY 29.0°P90 32°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 10M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RKPK resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
29.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:00
24.0°
MIN · 08:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 29.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:29 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°C
99¢100%
MKT
MDL
55¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $481 · THIN
30°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
28¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
31°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
≥33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RKPK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · BusanScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
12%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
5 of 42 days
1.08
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
27°C @ 51% → 29.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 29°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/busan→ same feed this page reads