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WeatherBusan
KR

Busan

6 live events
Highest temperature in Busan on October 22? $29.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RKPKPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 19°C @ 99¢21:48 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:00
NNE 2.1 m/s
WIND
67% RH
DEW POINT 7°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:41
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 18°MEAN 22° · TODAY 11.1°P90 25°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 33M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RKPK resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~01:40 · all temps °C
11.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 02:00
11.1°
MIN · 02:00
10111213≤12° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 11.1° · 02:00NOW 21:48000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 22.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -2.8°AT 21:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 21:48 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
19°C
99¢2%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $620 · THIN
17°C
0¢68%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
18°C
0¢25%
MKT
MDL
48¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
16°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
≤12°C
0¢1%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
13°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
14°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
15°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RKPK
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
21°C · 37%
p10-90 19.6-21.7°C
MKT 45¢ · $5.4K
SAT 24
18°C · 49%
p10-90 17.6-19.9°C
MKT 34¢ · $3.6K
Model track record · BusanScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.84
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
21°C @ 71% → 22.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 22°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/busan→ same feed this page reads