WeatherBuenos Aires
Buenos Aires Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 14? $23.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: SAEZPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-17 · 5H 9M LEFT11:51 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
S 2.1 m/s
WIND
82% RH
DEW POINT 13°
OVC · 516 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:07
SHOWERS 94% BY 11:00
PRECIP 94% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 16°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 15°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 15.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 19°MEAN 24° · TODAY 15.0°P90 29°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 12M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
SAEZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~13:40 · all temps °C
15.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:00
12.2°
MIN · 07:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 18.9°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.9°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:51 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤14°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤14°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
15°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR 0
16°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR -1
17°C
2¢4%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR +2
18°C
17¢10%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $19 · THIN
WATCH -7
19°C
42¢41%
MKT
MDL
21¢ → 42¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
FAIR -1
20°C
34¢41%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 34¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $42 · THIN
WATCH +8
21°C
9¢4%
MKT
MDL
20¢ → 9¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH -5
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: SAEZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Buenos AiresScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
0.90
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
19°C @ 47% → 18.9°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 19°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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