WeatherBuenos Aires
Buenos Aires Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 21? $32.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: SAEZPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 19°C @ 98¢18:33 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
SE 4.6 m/s
WIND
77% RH
DEW POINT 13°
- · 223 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:13
DRY
PRECIP 29% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 19°MEAN 24° · TODAY 18.9°P90 29°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 24M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
SAEZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
18.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:00
13.9°
MIN · 07:12
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 21.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.7°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:33 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤18°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
19°C
98¢37%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 98¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $521 · THIN
20°C
1¢47%
MKT
MDL
27¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
21°C
0¢14%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
22°C
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
23°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: SAEZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Buenos AiresScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
0.92
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
20°C @ 67% → 21.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 21°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/buenos-aires→ same feed this page reads