WeatherBuenos Aires
Buenos Aires Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 6? $12.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: SAEZPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 2H 35M LEFT13:25 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
SE 2.6 m/s
WIND
40% RH
DEW POINT -3°
BKN · 796 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:38
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 11°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 10°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.2°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 10.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 15°MEAN 20° · TODAY 10.0°P90 25°
DATA STALE · OBS 3H 18M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
SAEZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~13:40 · all temps °C
10.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 12:00
0.0°
MIN · 07:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 13.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -2.0°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:25 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤9°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤9°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
10°C▲ DAY MAX
14¢94%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 14¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $24 · THIN
⚡EDGE +81model over market
11°C
69¢6%
MKT
MDL
63¢ → 69¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $76 · THIN
⚡EDGE -63
12°C
20¢0%
MKT
MDL
10¢ → 20¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE -20
13°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -2
14°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: SAEZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Buenos AiresScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
24%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
10 of 41 days
0.95
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
12°C @ 76% → 13.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 13°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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