WeatherBeijing
Beijing Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Beijing on September 7? $58.2K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZBAAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 0H 52M LEFT15:08 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 14:30
NNE 2.1 m/s
WIND
52% RH
DEW POINT 18°
- · 241 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:36
SHOWERS 69% BY 18:00
PRECIP 69% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 30°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 29°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.6°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 29.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 23°MEAN 27° · TODAY 29.0°P90 31°
DATA STALE · OBS 3H 6M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZBAA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
29.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:00
22.0°
MIN · 06:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 31.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:08 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°C▲ DAY MAX
90¢69%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 90¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $125 · THIN
⚡EDGE -21market rich
30°C
7¢28%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
⚡EDGE +21
31°C
4¢3%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -1
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZBAA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · BeijingScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
24%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
10 of 42 days
0.96
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
31°C @ 67% → 31.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 31°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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