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Beijing

6 live events
Highest temperature in Beijing on October 22? $31.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZBAAPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 17°C @ 100¢18:23 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
SSE 2.1 m/s
WIND
44% RH
DEW POINT 1°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:24
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 13°MEAN 20° · TODAY 2.8°P90 24°
LAST OBS 23 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZBAA resolution station · next METAR ~18:30 · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
2.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
2.2°
MIN · 01:00
24681012RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 2.8° · 00:00NOW 18:23000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 17.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -10.6°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:23 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
17°C
100¢0%
MKT
MDL
60¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $375 · THIN
15°C
0¢96%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
14°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
16°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
≤10°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
11°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
12°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
13°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZBAA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
15°C · 86%
p10-90 14.5-15.3°C
MKT 48¢ · $10.3K
SAT 24
18°C · 84%
p10-90 17.7-18.6°C
MKT 31¢ · $371
Model track record · BeijingScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.80
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
15°C @ 57% → 17.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 17°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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