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Beijing

4 live events
Highest temperature in Beijing on October 15? $16.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZBAAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · IN 9H01:33 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 01:00
VRB 1.0 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 9°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:23
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 13°MEAN 20° · TODAY 11.1°P90 24°
LAST OBS 34 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZBAA resolution station · next METAR ~01:30 · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
11.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:30
11.1°
MIN · 00:30
1216202422° · 1¢23° · 1¢24° · 5¢25° · 13¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 21.1°DAY MAX 11.1° · 00:30NOW 01:33000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 21.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +5.0°AT 01:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 01:33 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
26°C
47¢0%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 47¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $273 · THIN
⚡EDGE -46
27°C
39¢0%
MKT
MDL
37¢ → 38¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $250 · THIN
⚡EDGE -38
24°C
5¢43%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
⚡EDGE +38
25°C
13¢31%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $789 · THIN
⚡EDGE +18
23°C
1¢16%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH +14
22°C
1¢10%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
WATCH +9
≤19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
FAIR 0
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
FAIR 0
21°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 105¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZBAA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
19°C · 22%
p10-90 15.9-21.2°C
MKT 22¢ · $1.6K
Model track record · BeijingScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-15
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.72
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
21°C @ 71% → 21.1°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 21°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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