WeatherAustin
Austin Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Austin on September 6? $41.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KAUSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 0H 25M LEFT15:35 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 15:27
ENE 7.2 m/s
WIND
56% RH
DEW POINT 22°
BKN · 773 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:47
PRECIP NOW · TS
PRECIP 16% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 94°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 93°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.7°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 93.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 90°MEAN 95° · TODAY 93.2°P90 101°
LAST OBS 104 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KAUS resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
93°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:53
77°
MIN · 06:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 100°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.6°AT 15:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 15:35 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤91°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤91°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
92-93°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢29%
MKT
MDL
13¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
⚡EDGE +29model over market
94-95°F
0¢51%
MKT
MDL
37¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
⚡EDGE +51
96-97°F
90¢18%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 90¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $221 · THIN
⚡EDGE -72
98-99°F
9¢2%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 9¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
WATCH -7
100-101°F
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KAUS
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · AustinScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
11 of 41 days
0.89
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
92-93°F @ 37% → 100°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 100-101°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/austin→ same feed this page reads