WeatherAustin
Austin Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Austin on July 23? — $26.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KAUSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · IN 1H11:29 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
NNE 3.6 m/s
WIND
58% RH
DEW POINT 23°
FEW · 713 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:30
DRY
PRECIP 3% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 91°FON PACE · 91°F LIVE
+1.8°/h
RATE
+0.2°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.9°
TO 90.5° BOUND
LAST OBS 89 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
KAUS resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °F
90°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:53
82°
MIN · 07:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 102°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -9.0°AT 11:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 11:29 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤93°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
94-95°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
96-97°F
8¢0%
MKT
MDL
10¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $26 · THIN
WATCH -7
98-99°F
56¢24%
MKT
MDL
50¢ → 56¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $39 · THIN
⚡EDGE -32
100-101°F
34¢61%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 34¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $51 · THIN
⚡EDGE +27
102-103°F
2¢16%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
WATCH +14
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — KAUS
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · AustinScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.31
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
100-101°F @ 55% → 102°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 102-103°F
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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