WeatherAustin
Austin Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Austin on October 22? $21.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KAUSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 11-17 · 0H 18M LEFT16:42 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 16:00
N 1.5 m/s
WIND
25% RH
DEW POINT 8°
SCT · 585 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:52
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 76°MEAN 87°P90 95°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 28M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KAUS resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~17:40 · all temps °F
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 79°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 16:42 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤75°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
76-77°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
78-79°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
80-81°F
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +4
82-83°F
0¢86%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE +86
84-85°F
0¢10%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH +10
86-87°F
93¢0%
MKT
MDL
67¢ → 93¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $325 · THIN
⚡EDGE -92
88-89°F
8¢0%
MKT
MDL
16¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
WATCH -7
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KAUS
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · AustinScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
1.03
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
80-81°F @ 69% → 79°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 78-79°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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