WeatherAtlanta
Atlanta Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Atlanta on September 6? $28.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KATLPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 1H 43M LEFT14:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 14:00
WNW 2.1 m/s
WIND
49% RH
DEW POINT 21°
FEW · 454 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:56
DRY
PRECIP 17% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 92°FON PACE · 92°F LIVE
+1.8°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.1°
TO 91.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY ABOVE P90 · RARE HEAT
P10 77°MEAN 84° · TODAY 91.4°P90 91°
LAST OBS 26 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KATL resolution station · next METAR ~14:22 · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °F
91°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:52
72°
MIN · 06:52
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 97°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -5.4°AT 14:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 14:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤89°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤89°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
90-91°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢10%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH +10
92-93°F
23¢45%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 22¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
⚡EDGE +22
94-95°F
53¢39%
MKT
MDL
27¢ → 53¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $40 · THIN
WATCH -14
96-97°F
23¢6%
MKT
MDL
49¢ → 23¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
⚡EDGE -17
98-99°F
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KATL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07WIDE SPREAD
86°F · 27%
p10-90 82-88°F
MKT 40¢ · $6.6K
TUE 08
86°F · 39%
p10-90 82-88°F
MKT 37¢ · $185
Model track record · AtlantaScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
51%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
21 of 41 days
0.64
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
98-99°F @ 45% → 97°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 96-97°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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