WeatherAtlanta
Atlanta Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Atlanta on October 14? $23.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KATLPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 11-16 · 3H 22M LEFT12:38 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 12:00
W 4.1 m/s
WIND
47% RH
DEW POINT 15°
- · 635 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:05
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 82°FON PACE · 82°F LIVE
+3.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 81.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 65°MEAN 76° · TODAY 81.0°P90 84°
LAST OBS 64 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KATL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °F
81°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:52
63°
MIN · 05:52
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 86°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -2.0°AT 12:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 12:38 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤79°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤79°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
80-81°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
82-83°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR -1
84-85°F
4¢20%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
⚡EDGE +16
86-87°F
65¢80%
MKT
MDL
54¢ → 64¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $74 · THIN
⚡EDGE +16
88-89°F
30¢0%
MKT
MDL
33¢ → 29¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $35 · THIN
⚡EDGE -29
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KATL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · AtlantaScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.79
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
84-85°F @ 82% → 86°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 86-87°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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