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WeatherAtlanta
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Atlanta

6 live events
Highest temperature in Atlanta on October 21? $29.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KATLPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 74-75°F @ 100¢20:55 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 20:00
WNW 2.6 m/s
WIND
43% RH
DEW POINT 6°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:56
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 65°MEAN 76° · TODAY 71.0°P90 84°
LAST OBS 83 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KATL resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °F
71°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:52
51°
MIN · 06:52
52566064687270-71° · 0¢72-73° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 71° · 13:52NOW 20:55000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 75°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +8.0°AT 20:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 20:55 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
74-75°F
100¢0%
MKT
MDL
43¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $717 · THIN
72-73°F
0¢96%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
70-71°F
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
≤69°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
76-77°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
49¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
78-79°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KATL
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 22
73°F · 59%
p10-90 73-75°F
MKT 69¢ · $20.0K
FRI 23
70°F · 51%
p10-90 69-72°F
MKT 47¢ · $14.2K
Model track record · AtlantaScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.78
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
72-73°F @ 63% → 75°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 74-75°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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