WeatherAnkara
Ankara Temperature Markets on Polymarket
3 live eventsHighest temperature in Ankara on July 23? — $67.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LTACPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 30°C @ 100¢19:32 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:20
NW 4.1 m/s
WIND
41% RH
DEW POINT 11°
FEW · 229 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:10
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 2M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
LTAC resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
30.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:50
16.0°
MIN · 07:32
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 31.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.0°AT 19:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 19:32 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤29°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
30°C
100¢2%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.4K
31°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — LTAC
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 24
28°C · 55%
p10–90 27.8–29.0°C
MKT 46¢ · $11.1K
SAT 25WIDE SPREAD
20°C · 31%
p10–90 18.6–23.9°C
MKT 25¢ · $7.4K
— Model track record · AnkaraScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
75%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
3 of 4 days
0.54
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
31°C @ 73% → 31.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 31°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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