WeatherAnkara
Ankara Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Ankara on October 14? $29.6K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LTACPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · ≤16°C @ 100¢20:36 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 20:20
ENE 4.1 m/s
WIND
88% RH
DEW POINT 11°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:10
SHOWERS 85% BY 20:00
PRECIP 85% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 15°MEAN 20° · TODAY 15.0°P90 25°
LAST OBS 17 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LTAC resolution station · next METAR ~20:50 · next ENS pull ~01:40 · all temps °C
15.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 16:20
11.1°
MIN · 06:50
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 21.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 20:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 20:36 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤16°C
100¢59%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3.2K
17°C
0¢26%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
18°C
0¢16%
MKT
MDL
27¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
16¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
21°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LTAC
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15
16°C · 31%
p10-90 14.9-18.2°C
MKT 32¢ · $11.3K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
12°C · 33%
p10-90 11.2-14.8°C
MKT 39¢ · $1.6K
Model track record · AnkaraScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.90
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
20°C @ 65% → 21.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 21°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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