WeatherAmsterdam
Amsterdam Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Amsterdam on October 21? $42.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EHAMPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 13°C @ 96¢23:52 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 23:25
SW 7.7 m/s
WIND
87% RH
DEW POINT 8°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:33
PRECIP NOW · SHRA
PRECIP 90% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 12°MEAN 15° · TODAY 12.8°P90 19°
DATA STALE · OBS 7H 1M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
EHAM resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
12.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 14:25
10.0°
MIN · 09:55
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 12.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +3.3°AT 23:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 23:52 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤12°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
13°C
96¢100%
MKT
MDL
56¢ → 96¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $401 · THIN
14°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
15°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
16°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
≥17°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: EHAM
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · AmsterdamScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.22
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
11°C @ 80% → 12.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 12°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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