Arid-Pagoda · Polymarket wallet 0xf965…ccb0

Wallet snapshot

Arid-Pagoda has made 570 trades on Polymarket across 159 markets, $4,314 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (20%) and politics (19%). On 29 resolved markets the win rate is 69%, lifetime P&L -$18. It holds 128 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?". Last trade: Oct 12, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?No · $36 · 87¢ → 87¢
• Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?No · $34 · 89¢ → 84¢
• Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?No · $34 · 79¢ → 96¢
• Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by less than 5%?No · $31 · 84¢ → 88¢
• Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?No · $30 · 87¢ → 99¢
• Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?Yes · $28 · 73¢ → 94¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No · $26 · 80¢ → 87¢
• Will The Batman: Part II be delayed?Yes · $26 · 14¢ → 45¢
• Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?No · $23 · 42¢ → 43¢
• Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%?No · $23 · 80¢ → 91¢

Latest closed positions

• Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes · -$2 · Oct 12, 2026
• Virginia Fonseca and Vinícius Júnior confirm breakup in 2026?Yes · +$9 · Oct 11, 2026
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9?Yes · +$5 · Oct 11, 2026
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?Yes · +$17 · Oct 10, 2026
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Karoline Leavitt by October 31, 2026?Yes · +$4 · Oct 10, 2026
• Will JD Vance say "Economy" or "Economic" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Yes · +$1 · Oct 9, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.