Extraneous-Shoes · Polymarket wallet 0xb4b8…d2b1

Wallet snapshot

Extraneous-Shoes has made 178 trades on Polymarket across 91 markets, $479 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (91%) and politics (7%). On 86 resolved markets the win rate is 61.6%, lifetime P&L +$22. It holds 5 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Israel election: will Likud lose seats?". Last trade: Jul 31, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes · $9 · 86¢ → 93¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?No · $4 · 92¢ → 97¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No · $2 · 92¢ → 98¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaYes · $1 · 87¢ → 94¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes · $1 · 68¢ → 7¢

Latest closed positions

• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?No · +$0 · Jul 3, 2026
• Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?No · +$0 · Jul 2, 2026
• Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?No · +$6 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes · +$0 · Jun 21, 2026
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes · +$0 · Jun 8, 2026
• Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Yes · +$1 · May 29, 2026
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes · +$0 · May 13, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes · -$2 · May 13, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No · +$0 · May 13, 2026
• Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No · +$0 · May 9, 2026

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