Leading-Probe · Polymarket wallet 0x8164…25a3

Wallet snapshot

Leading-Probe has made 238 trades on Polymarket across 24 markets, $13K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (100%). On 23 resolved markets the win rate is 69.6%, lifetime P&L +$781. It holds 1 open position right now; the largest is Yes on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Last trade: Aug 1, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes · $29 · 61¢ → 14¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No · +$420 · Jul 12, 2026
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No · +$14 · Jul 1, 2026
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes · +$60 · May 22, 2026
• Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Yes · -$66 · Apr 1, 2026
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Yes · -$65 · Apr 1, 2026
• US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?Yes · +$134 · Apr 1, 2026
• Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes · -$55 · Apr 1, 2026
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No · +$3 · Mar 16, 2026
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Yes · +$137 · Mar 14, 2026
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes · +$133 · Mar 14, 2026

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