Polymarket wallet 0x3df4…bc8b

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0x3df4…bc8b has made 194 trades on Polymarket across 193 markets, $250 in volume. Most of it is in economics (15%) and geopolitics (10%). On 184 resolved markets the win rate is 59.2%, lifetime P&L +$16. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?". Last trade: Nov 10, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?No · $1 · 80¢ → 94¢
• Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?No · $1 · 79¢ → 82¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?No · $1 · 55¢ → 46¢
• Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?Yes · $0 · 21¢ → 9¢

Latest closed positions

• WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on November 10?Yes · +$1 · Nov 11, 2026
• Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 10, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Nov 10, 2026
• Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in October?No · -$1 · Nov 10, 2026
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Nov 10, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 9, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 9, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?Yes · +$2 · Nov 9, 2026
• Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 7+ times during "60 Minutes" extended interview?Yes · +$1 · Nov 9, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?No · -$1 · Nov 8, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.