PoliticsResolved
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$277.9K
5,616 trades
Smart Whales
159
of 751 traders
Smart Money Consensus
53 YESvs106 NO
33%67%
67% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 89% YES by dollars · 28 YES vs 24 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $31.2K is directional: YES $27.7K·NO $3.5KYES Team
Total Invested
$36.1K
Avg Win Rate
74.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$35.4K(-98.0%)
Whales
53
6
65765757🥇
Entry 59¢·20,234.5 shares
Invested
$11.9K
Win Rate
78.2%
Position P&L
$-11857
$-11857INV $11.9K · WR 78.2%
R
Renan2030🥈
Entry 52¢·18,480.7 shares
Invested
$9.7K
Win Rate
77.3%
Position P&L
$-9685
$-9685INV $9.7K · WR 77.3%
T
ThanksGivingTurkey1001🥉
Entry 146¢·2,585.4 shares
Invested
$3.8K
Win Rate
69.7%
Position P&L
$-3764
$-3764INV $3.8K · WR 69.7%
L
LulaVaiPerderhedged
Entry 38¢·6,866.4 shares·also $4.1K on NO
Invested
$2.6K
Win Rate
75.2%
Position P&L
$-2587
$-2587INV $2.6K · WR 75.2%
M
megaforest
Entry 53¢·4,731.8 shares
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
72.4%
Position P&L
$-2520
$-2520INV $2.5K · WR 72.4%
S
Seeking-Alpha01
Entry 53¢·3,271.7 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
67.3%
Position P&L
$-1720
$-1720INV $1.7K · WR 67.3%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedhedged
Entry 95¢·1,185.3 shares·also $326 on NO
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-1131
$-1131INV $1.1K · WR 55.3%
G
GroovyCr0c0dil3
Entry 40¢·1,751 shares
Invested
$698
Win Rate
57.9%
Position P&L
$-694
$-694INV $698 · WR 57.9%
G
gambler925
Entry 5¢·7,834.7 shares
Invested
$363
Win Rate
56.1%
Position P&L
$-347
$-347INV $363 · WR 56.1%
R
Ryxon21◆Proven
Entry 56¢·500 shares
Invested
$280
Win Rate
71.3%
Position P&L
$-280
$-280INV $280 · WR 71.3%
Showing top 10 of 53
NO Team
Total Invested
$39.0K
Avg Win Rate
77.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$25.7K(+66.0%)
Whales
106
B
balthazar🥇
Entry 63¢·14,736.9 shares
Invested
$9.4K
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$5384
+$5384INV $9.4K · WR 72.2%
B
Bigggggggg🥈
Entry 47¢·10,762.7 shares
Invested
$5.1K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$5682
+$5682INV $5.1K · WR 85.8%
L
LulaVaiPerder🥉hedged
Entry 60¢·6,866.4 shares·also $2.6K on YES
Invested
$4.1K
Win Rate
75.2%
Position P&L
+$2762
+$2762INV $4.1K · WR 75.2%
D
donthackme
Entry 45¢·7,894.4 shares
Invested
$3.5K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$4359
+$4359INV $3.5K · WR 87.7%
C
conherence
Entry 36¢·4,868.9 shares
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
58.8%
Position P&L
+$3095
+$3095INV $1.8K · WR 58.8%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 56¢·3,115.7 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$1376
+$1376INV $1.7K · WR 85.9%
M
Musk5
Entry 99¢·850 shares
Invested
$842
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $842 · WR 71.9%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 61¢·1,182.4 shares
Invested
$719
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$463
+$463INV $719 · WR 89.0%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 60¢·959.7 shares
Invested
$573
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$386
+$386INV $573 · WR 88.7%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 47¢·1,018.2 shares
Invested
$477
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$542
+$542INV $477 · WR 88.2%
Showing top 10 of 106
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