Politics19 days left

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-03 House election?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

37¢

37% implied

NO Price

63¢

63% implied

Volume

$127

7 trades

Smart Whales

2

of 5 traders

CA-03 House Election Margin of Victory

8 MARKETS · $1.7K MATCHED

Smart Money

39¢−39¢$500/1

by 10%-15%−39¢39¢

32¢−32¢$800/1

by 15%-20%−32¢32¢

28¢−14¢$4981/6

by 20%-25%−14¢28¢

38¢−38¢$500/1

by 25%-30%−38¢38¢

35¢−21¢$5061/6

by 30% or more−21¢35¢

38¢−38¢$500/1

by 5%-10%−38¢38¢

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-03 House election←

37¢−37¢$1270/1

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-03 House election←−37¢37¢

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Smart Money Consensus

1 YESvs1 NO

50%50%

50% of smart money holding this market is on YESNet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side

Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $4 is directional: YES $4·NO $0

YES Team

Total Invested

$4

Avg Win Rate

87.7%

Aggregate P&L

+$3(+79.4%)

Whales

1

northdrawer🥇

Entry 10¢·40 shares

+$3INV $4 · WR 87.7%

NO Team

Total Invested

$80

Avg Win Rate

89.3%

Aggregate P&L

+$21(+25.8%)

Whales

1

graynotebook19🥇

Entry 50¢·160 shares

+$21INV $80 · WR 89.3%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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