Geopolitics47 days left

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by December 31?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

43¢

43% implied

NO Price

57¢

57% implied

Volume

$14.5K

226 trades

Smart Whales

of 91 traders

Smart Money Consensus

1 YESvs10 NO

Wallets vs price

Price 43¢

YES 9%NO 91%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 43¢

Net of both-sides wallets: 20% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 9 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 80%· net of hedges

$166

$551

+6 new YES · 1 smart whale+4 new NO · 1 smart whale

$77 bought on both sides by the same 3 buyers — left out of momentum

In-form wallets ⓘ2 of 3 on NO

YES 1NO 2one dot = one wallet

1 wallet on YES

Rybkaoi$85

2 wallets on NO

The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 3 days ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested

Teams by

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $414 is directional: YES $85·NO $330

YES Team

Total Invested

$85

Avg Win Rate

61.2%

Aggregate P&L

-$2(-2.4%)

Whales

RybkaoiProven🥇