Glossary — Polymarket Whale Tracking Terminology

Authoritative definitions for the methodology terms used across OrcaLayer. Each entry links to the relevant section of the full published methodology for the data and formulas behind it.

Farmer Filter: OrcaLayer's proprietary method of detecting wallets that systematically buy near settled markets (average buy price approaching 100¢) to harvest near-guaranteed penny profits and rack up volume for airdrop rewards. These wallets produce gorgeous win rates with almost no skill. The Farmer Filter detects and excludes them from Smart Money rankings — roughly 98% of fake-skill wallets removed before you see the leaderboard. See methodology §04 →
NegRisk Correction: OrcaLayer's adjustment for Polymarket's multi-outcome markets, which under the hood are built as linked Yes/No outcomes. Without correction, a single winning position is double-counted across all linked legs, inflating both win rate and P&L. OrcaLayer halves resolved profit on NegRisk markets and divides split/merge cash across linked outcomes — so one win counts as one win. See methodology §05 →
Smart Money Score: OrcaLayer's three-part test for identifying skilled Polymarket traders: (1) win rate of 55% or higher measured per market, not per trade; (2) positive total realized P&L across resolved markets; (3) not classified as a Farmer or Bot. Wallets earning the Smart Money badge meet all three conditions simultaneously. See methodology §03 →
ISW Territory Signal: OrcaLayer's frontline proximity metric for Ukraine territorial-control markets on Polymarket. Tracks the daily Institute for the Study of War (ISW) ArcGIS publication and computes distance from each market's defined city or zone to Russian-controlled area. Assigns threat levels: HIGH (under 500m), MEDIUM (under 1.5km), LOW (under 3km), SAFE. Covers 50+ frontline markets. See methodology §09 →
FIFO P&L: First-in-first-out lot accounting used by OrcaLayer for realized profit and loss per wallet per market. Each buy opens a lot at its price, each sell closes the oldest open lots first, redemption at settlement closes whatever remains. Produces honest realized P&L per position, average entry price, and a clear winner/loser verdict — rather than crude 'value in minus value out' that ignores trade order. See methodology §06 →
Median Hold Time: OrcaLayer's wallet behavior style classifier. For each wallet, measures time from first to last trade in a market across all closed positions, then reports the median (not average — to avoid distortion from outliers). Shown only for wallets with three or more closed positions. A few hours indicates a scalper; several weeks indicates a conviction holder. See methodology §07 →
10-market gate: OrcaLayer's minimum threshold for wallet inclusion in analytics. A wallet enters scoring only once it has traded at least 10 distinct markets that have already resolved. Filters out one-hit wonders whose '100% win rate' is luck not skill. Invisible to users — wallets appearing on the Leaderboard have already cleared this gate. See methodology §02 →
Router Contract: One of the four Polymarket protocol contracts (CTF Exchange and NegRisk routers) that sit on both sides of ordinary trades. Without exclusion, a router can masquerade as a single hyper-active 'insider' wallet. OrcaLayer strips routers out across the entire platform by default. See methodology §01 →